Some People Just Get Incredible Luck

So I’ve been fervently following The_Real_Fly, who just had a 17% return for January.  Wisely raising 75% cash upon such stellar return, he now holds only 2 positions, SFLY and SODA.  Both had earnings last night – well not quite, SODA is a sympathy play for GMCR which was the one that had earnings last night.   SFLY tanked as much as 14% after hours, while GMCR shot up over 25%.   The comment from him was, he should had held GMCR (which he sold out 2 days ago) instead of SODA, and that he hoped the gain in SODA will ease the pain in SFLY.   Well, did he get his wish, and more, this morning!  SFLY was barely down:

And SODA is up over 6% so far.

It’s only 10 am, but this is an incredible icing on the cake for someone who doesn’t even need it.

That said, I enjoyed the pop in GMCR in my IRA account, and my 100 share of SODA that I complained about yesterday served me justice this morning.  That did some much needed psycho therapy for me.

UPDATE: FLY sold SFLY +2% for the day for 5% profit.  Amazing how he did not sell earlier!

UPDATE: SFLY ended the day up 7.88%!!  What a reversal.  Poor shorts!!

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Fib Extensions Based on Yesterday’s Range

So the market had a big green gap this morning, the Fib Extension tool can be used to gauge possible extension points.  Check this out:

Look at how at each (23.60, 38.20, 50.00, and 61.80) level the price either peaked or consolidated.  Too bad Fib 76.40 wasn’t hit, otherwise I would have had a major add to my core short positions.

On a separate note, jinx continued to prosper in my world of trading.  The red hot Fly who’s made 17% year to date return was now all cash except for SFLY and SODA.   The former will have earnings tonight, the latter will have GMCR earning and will react in sympathy.  This is what Fly blogged earlier today:

Nevertheless, I am long two stocks: SODA and SFLY. SFLY posts numbers this evening and will likely whip me like a f*cking slave on an egregious earnings miss. However, SODA, on the other hand, that’s another story. That f*cker is going to steamroll higher, cutting off heads, arms and d*cks along the way.

This is the resulting intraday charts:

You can guess which one I bought midday today…

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Day Trades – SPY

  1. Short 300# at the gap open at the 61.8 Fib on the 60 minute chart
  2. Quick exit for a scalp
  3. Re-enter short 300# at better price
  4. Exit at Open Range support
  5. L1 Short 300E at the 20 MA
  6. Partial profit at lower channel line on 2 day chart
  7. Trailing stop exit
  8. Broke down trend and retested the low, classic bottom.  Took a 2 hour break to stay out of trouble.
  9. Short 50# on newly established upper channel line and the 38.2 Fib
  10. Exit on trend line support.  Token play for kicks only.
  11. Short 50# on upper channel line resistance and 50 Fib
  12. Exit on 20 MA.  Token play for kicks only.

Good day.  After the morning success, I was mindful to call it a day.  However, I couldn’t sit tight and broke the rule.  I made more trades but only 50 share token trades to stay away from trouble.

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Fly Is Up 17% Year To Date

That’s right.  The_Real_Fly is up 17% year to date, and we’re talking about multi-million dollar portfolios.   Here are some of his recent trades.  He’s conveniently taken profits on all by now.

Why not just follow his trades?  Of course.  But we’ve all heard about “past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.”   A week or two ago, when he was up an impressive 7% for the year, I had exactly same thoughts.   May be the law of means reversion will bring future losses for him to even out the odds.  In other words, what if the moment I started following his trades, that’s when his losing streak would begin?

The law of jinx worked this way:  I would “cherry pick” only some of his entries, and these would be the losers and the rest of his trades would continue their stellar returns.  This was in this fashion that he’s boosted another 10% on top of the 7% YTD return while I continue to suck wind.

Shouldn’t I just surrender to fate, a.k.a predestination in the context of free will?   Of course not.  Even if God predestined one’s fate, no one would know God’s exact plan; therefore, practically, one does have free will.  I shall continue to persevere and fight the jinx that so far has refused to leave me alone.

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The Price of Being Prudent – Stopped Out at HOD

Trying to be disciplined and honor the stop ordered.  Ended up getting punished by exiting at the high of the day.

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Why Am I Short Here?!

Let’s see… Facebook IPO coming, all internet stocks going double digits today.  End of month window dressing for the best January in decades.  Beginning of the month new funds coming in next week.

Thanks to the proprietary indicator I subscribe to:

It will take a miracle to trump a miracle.

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Bears Are Meant to Suffer

Sellings are events while buyings are a grinding process.  The market spends most of the time going up, due to dynamics of greed and fear, which fuels the law of supply and demand.  To catch the selling events, it’s a given that the bears would have to suffer and endure the unrelenting taunting of the market.  And despite the suffering, the bears may still lose in the end.  Because even if the market operates according to the laws of the fundamental and technical analyses, the bulls have the Fed and the politicians on their side who often manipulate the market rather than letting it run its natural course. [Continue reading…]

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